Christian McCaffrey leads Week 1 RBs after a career-heavy edge vs Seattle, with high target share and reliable goal-line work in a prolific SF offense. De’Von Achane could ascend into top-five territory if Tua stays healthy, as Miami leans on him in multiple roles. Saquon Barkley and Bijan Robinson anchor the top tier, while James Cook provides a solid PPR floor against Baltimore. Tank Bigsby, Travis Etienne Jr., and Chase Brown sit in the next wave, with backfield splits shaping every lineup decision.

Week 1 is about workload clarity and matchup-driven upside. Backfields across the league look volatile: expect heavy committee usage for several teams, TD-driven volatility for others, and the need to lean on veterans like Montgomery and Ford when the situation isn’t clean. Smart rostering and game-script awareness will separate top fantasy managers from the rest in the season’s opening gambit.

Matthew Berry highlights a brand-new, high-variance crop of fantasy players, dubbing them his “chicken” picks. Breece Hall leads the nervous list, with elite upside if he returns fully healthy, but deal-breaking uncertainty from competition with Dalvin Cook. Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet loom in Seattle as a potential split that caps ceiling. Saquon Barkley remains an elite asset but carries injury and workload questions at his lofty ADP. Puka Nakua’s ceiling is sky-high, yet Stafford’s health and offense volatility temper the outlook. James Cook faces touchdown regression risk in Buffalo, complicating his cost.

Two running backs and two tight ends lead the list of fantasy players these hosts won’t draft in 2025, with cost and circumstance driving the caution. Bree Hall and Josh Jacobs sit at the top of the running back caution list, each flagged for concerns around offense and regression. On the tight end side, Tucker Craft and Mark Andrews get the cold shoulder, as the Packers’ usage and touchdown volatility temper their ceiling at ADP. The episode then shifts to sleepers and risk, including RJ Harvey as a boom-or-bust ride-or-die option behind a revamped Broncos backfield.

Context matters: Jets’ offense dysfunction clouds Hall’s upside, and Detroit’s offense figures to run through Gibbs with Montgomery. Jacobs’ heavy workload last year is hard to replicate, especially if TDs soften. The talk also flags the Packers’ shifting playbook, which could shrink Craft’s path to consistent big weeks while elevating Musgrave or other Green Bay pass-catchers. The vibe: patience and selective upside win fantasy leagues in 2025.

James Cook’s ADP isn’t a personal beat—it's about value. Last year he finished inside the top 10 in fantasy points, yet the panel sees a regression risk tied to Bills’ TD volatility and a crowded backfield, making RB15 look safe but not sexy. The conversation pivots to whether he can sustain efficiency without 16 rushing TDs, given Allen’s goal-line carries and the changing touch mix.

In New York, the Jets’ backfield strategy looms large. Bree Hall remains the centerpiece, but Brilan Allen’s role and passing-game usage create a delicate window for 60–70 receptions—if the offense can sustain passing volume. Up in Cincinnati, Joe Mixon’s indefinite status and Nick Chubb’s steadiness in Cleveland anchor the latest 2024 questions about injury timelines, workload splits, and how to leverage strong but not slam-dunk floor players in Week 1 lines.

James Cook’s four-year, 48 million extension with 30 million guaranteed locks in Buffalo’s backfield plan and signals a true three-down role if he stays healthy. His college mileage was light, and his receiving efficiency last year hints at a premium fantasy path if the Bills lean into him in the air as well as on early downs.

Across the AFC, Browns’ quarterback competition and a rocky development process cloud Cleveland’s fantasy ceiling, even as Shadur Sanders showcases potential. Miami’s Chop Robinson left practice with an ankle/oblique issue, dampening the defense’s upside amid injuries, depth questions and an unsettled pass rush. In New England, Drake Maye carries tantalizing upside as Will Campbell anchors the line; early-week lines point to a Patriots offense capable of surprises, but fantasy value hinges on how quickly the rookies and new pieces gel. Track target distribution, depth-chart shifts, and injury news as preseason turns to Week 1 projections.